英国《金融时报》 迈克尔•麦肯兹 纽约, 罗宾•哈丁 华盛顿报道
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Fears that the US and other major economies are slowing sharply sent investors piling into the safety of government debt yesterday, pushing UK, German and US bond yields down to record lows.
Global equities and commodities like oil that move on expectations of growth prospects, also fell sharply. Investors sent the Japanese yen to a 15-year high against the dollar as investors exited risky currency trades.
Analysts say the moves reflected expectations that in order to stimulate global growth, central banks have to buy more government bonds and are in no position to tighten monetary policy until 2012 at the earliest.
“There is a global perception that while we are not necessarily going into a Japan-type scenario, there is a recognition of a slow recovery accompanied by disinflation that means there is little pressure on central banks to raise rates,” said Gerald Lucas at Deutsche Bank.
德意志银行(Deutsche Bank)的杰拉尔德•卢卡斯(Gerald Lucas)表示：“虽然全球投资者感到，我们不一定会陷入日本式的衰退，但他们认定复苏将是缓慢的，并将伴随通胀减速——几乎不会对央行构成任何加息压力。”
The slide in bond yields will focus attention even more than usual on Ben Bernanke, the Federal Reserve chairman, when he gives a policy speech at the central bank’s Jackson Hole conference on Friday.
国债收益率的下滑将让美联储(Fed)主席本•伯南克(Ben Bernanke)在周五发表政策讲话时，受到比以往更多的关注。伯南克周五将在美联储杰克逊霍尔(Jackson Hole)会议发表政策讲话。
Mr Bernanke is set to use his speech to explain the Fed’s move at its last meeting to reinvest cash from maturing mortgage-backed securities and thereby stop its balance sheet from shrinking.
That move took markets by surprise and fuelled heavy flows into bonds and out of equities. Some Fed officials are concerned that, by shaking market confidence, it may have been counterproductive.
Mr Bernanke will want to convince the markets that the change did not reflect Fed pessimism about the economic outlook. Most Fed officials agreed that the outlook is weaker, so it no longer made sense to tighten policy by shrinking the Fed’s balance sheet.