美国国债收益率降至创纪录低点

英国《金融时报》 迈克尔•麦肯兹 纽约, 罗宾•哈丁 华盛顿报道
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Fears that the US and other major economies are slowing sharply sent investors piling into the safety of government debt yesterday, pushing UK, German and US bond yields down to record lows.

由于担心美国和其它主要经济体的增长将会大幅放缓,投资者昨日纷纷涌入国债市场寻求避险,将英国、德国和美国的国债收益率推低至创纪录低点。

Global equities and commodities like oil that move on expectations of growth prospects, also fell sharply. Investors sent the Japanese yen to a 15-year high against the dollar as investors exited risky currency trades.

受上述增长前景预期的影响,全球股市以及石油等大宗商品市场也出现大幅下跌。投资者纷纷退出高风险货币交易,推动日元兑美元汇率升至15年高点。

Analysts say the moves reflected expectations that in order to stimulate global growth, central banks have to buy more government bonds and are in no position to tighten monetary policy until 2012 at the earliest.

分析师们表示,市场的上述表现反映出一种预期:为了刺激全球经济增长,各国央行将不得不购买更多的国债;此外,它们最早也要等到2012年时才会收紧货币政策。

“There is a global perception that while we are not necessarily going into a Japan-type scenario, there is a recognition of a slow recovery accompanied by disinflation that means there is little pressure on central banks to raise rates,” said Gerald Lucas at Deutsche Bank.

德意志银行(Deutsche Bank)的杰拉尔德•卢卡斯(Gerald Lucas)表示:“虽然全球投资者感到,我们不一定会陷入日本式的衰退,但他们认定复苏将是缓慢的,并将伴随通胀减速——几乎不会对央行构成任何加息压力。”

The slide in bond yields will focus attention even more than usual on Ben Bernanke, the Federal Reserve chairman, when he gives a policy speech at the central bank’s Jackson Hole conference on Friday.

国债收益率的下滑将让美联储(Fed)主席本•伯南克(Ben Bernanke)在周五发表政策讲话时,受到比以往更多的关注。伯南克周五将在美联储杰克逊霍尔(Jackson Hole)会议发表政策讲话。

Mr Bernanke is set to use his speech to explain the Fed’s move at its last meeting to reinvest cash from maturing mortgage-backed securities and thereby stop its balance sheet from shrinking.

伯南克将利用这次讲话来解释美联储在上次会议上商定的举措,即把抵押贷款支持证券(MBS)到期后回笼的资金再投入市场,避免收缩自身资产负债规模。

That move took markets by surprise and fuelled heavy flows into bonds and out of equities. Some Fed officials are concerned that, by shaking market confidence, it may have been counterproductive.

此举出乎市场意料,并导致大量资金流出股市、流入国债市场。一些美联储官员担心,此举可能适得其反,因为它动摇了市场的信心。

Mr Bernanke will want to convince the markets that the change did not reflect Fed pessimism about the economic outlook. Most Fed officials agreed that the outlook is weaker, so it no longer made sense to tighten policy by shrinking the Fed’s balance sheet.

伯南克将希望说服市场相信,这一政策改变并不意味着美联储对经济前景感到悲观。大多数美联储官员都认为,鉴于经济前景走弱,通过收缩美联储资产负债规模来收紧政策已不再是明智之举。

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