巴克莱资本如何扩张?

作者:英国《金融时报》 梅根•墨菲

When news leaked last week that Barclays may be on the hunt for a large US retail bank, just 18 months after swallowing Lehman Brothers’ US operations, some analysts speculated that it was part of a push to rebalance the bank’s earnings.

近期传出消息,巴克莱(Barclays)目前可能正寻求收购一家大型美国零售银行,而就在18个月前,该行刚刚吞并了雷曼兄弟(Lehman Brothers)的美国业务。一些分析师猜测,此举是巴克莱试图调整收益结构的努力的一部分。

The impact of regulatory changes on Barclays Capital, the booming but volatile investment banking division that last year contributed nearly half of group pre-tax profits, is likely to force Barclays to beef up its presence in less risky businesses, in particular the amount of liquid, retail deposits it holds, they said.

他们称,监管改革对巴克莱资本(Barclays Capital)的影响,可能会迫使巴克莱增加风险性较低的业务,尤其是持有的活期、零售存款数额。巴克莱资本是巴克莱发展迅猛、但不稳定的投行部门,去年贡献了整个集团近一半的税前盈利。

A big US acquisition would also address the problem of how Barclays will derive two-thirds of its profits from outside the investment bank “over time”, as it has repeatedly assured investors.

在美国进行大手笔收购,也能解决巴克莱所面临的难题:如何兑现它一再向投资者做出的保证,即“早晚有一天”,三分之二的利润将来自非投行业务。

Given the poor record of transatlantic banking tie-ups, the fact that Barclays would seek an acquisition to diversify its revenues speaks volumes about the perceived difficulty of reducing its dependence on BarCap, analysts said.

分析师表示,鉴于大西洋两岸银行业联系的过往纪录很糟糕,巴克莱试图通过收购实现营收多样化的事实,充分说明了它减少对巴克莱资本的依赖有明显的难度。

“It’s like walking into a casino and betting everything on red,” said one senior Wall Street executive when asked to describe BarCap’s growth in recent years.

在让一位华尔街资深高管形容一下近些年巴克莱资本的增长时,他表示:“这就像走进一个赌场,倾其所有来押红一样。”

He added: “Luckily for Barclays, for now it keeps coming up red.”

他补充道:“巴克莱很幸运,眼下一直出红。”

BarCap’s growth amid the fallout from the financial crisis has resulted from a combination of skill and luck.

在金融危机的影响下,巴克莱资本能有所增长,要归功于技能加运气。

Although BarCap’s chief executive Bob Diamond and his top lieutenants may have had the foresight to build market share through high-volume, lower-margin “flow” businesses and market-leading technology, they also only narrowly missed the torpedo of taking on a much bigger chunk of Lehman’s toxic balance sheet.

尽管巴克莱资本的首席执行官鲍勃•戴蒙德(Bob Diamond)和众高层们可能很有先见之明,通过交易量大但利润率较低的“流动”业务、及其市场领先的技术,抢占了市场份额,但他们也差一点就因为接手雷曼规模大得多的有毒资产负债表而遭遇灭顶之灾。

Sustaining and improving BarCap’s position in more stable markets will depend less on the whims of fortune than on its ability to maintain its position in core high-volume businesses such as fixed income, and build market share in other areas such as equities and advisory work.

今后,要想保持并提高巴克莱资本在相对较稳定的市场的地位,与其依赖飘忽不定的运气,不如依靠自己的技能,维持自己在固定收益等核心大宗业务中的地位,同时提高在股票和咨询业务等其它领域的市场份额。

In 2009, 72 per cent of BarCap’s £18bn top-line income came from its so-called “FICC” business – trading liquid debt securities, swaps, currencies and commodities on behalf of clients.

2009年,巴克莱资本180亿英镑的营收中,有72%来自所谓的“固定收益、外汇和大宗商品”(FICC)业务——代表客户交易流动债券、互换产品、外汇和大宗商品。

That is almost five times the revenue of its equities and prime services business, and more than six times its “traditional” investment banking advisory business.

这几乎是其股票及大宗经纪业务收入的5倍,是其“传统”投行咨询业务收入的6倍以上。

Like rivals such as Goldman Sachs and Deutsche Bank, BarCap exploited heavy demand to drive big profits.

与高盛(Goldman Sachs)和德意志银行(Deutsche Bank)等竞争对手一样,巴克莱资本利用巨大的市场需求,赚取了丰厚的利润。

BarCap insiders insist that FICC will remain at the core of their strategy, even as the market pendulum swings back towards the mergers and acquisitions and initial public offering markets.

巴克莱资本内部人士坚称,FICC业务仍将是他们的战略核心,即使市场重心又开始重新转向并购交易和首次公开发行(IPO)市场。

But the acquisition of Lehman’s US operations, which had a strong equities franchise, has finally given Mr Diamond a platform to build a global equities business. He has responded by taking on hundreds of staff in Europe and Asia, led by star recruits such as Jim Renwick, formerly of UBS.

但收购雷曼的美国业务——该业务拥有强大的股票特许经营业务——最终为戴蒙德提供了一个构建全球股票业务的平台。为此,他在欧洲和亚洲招募了数百名员工,以前瑞银(UBS)高管吉姆•伦威克(Jim Renwick)等明星银行家为首。

In investment banking, BarCap has taken on Tom King, one of Citigroup’s top rainmakers in Europe, to spearhead its push up the M&A league tables.

在投行业务,巴克莱资本延揽了花旗(Citigroup)在欧洲的顶级“造雨人”汤姆•金(Tom King),负责提高其并购业务的成绩。

“It’s pretty clear where we’re focused now and that’s on building out the global equities business and building out the investment banking business,” said Rich Ricci, BarCap’s co-chief executive of corporate and investment banking.

“我们十分清楚目前的关注重点,即拓展全球股票业务及投行业务,”巴克莱资本企业与投资银行业务联席主管里奇•瑞西(Rich Ricci)表示。

BarCap insiders say that their biggest challenge now lies in increasing client awareness about the breadth of their capacity.

巴克莱资本的内部人士表示,他们目前最大的挑战在于,如何促进客户了解该公司的业务能力。

Research released yesterday by Huw van Steenis, Morgan Stanley’s chief banking analyst, shows the build-out is already bearing fruit, with BarCap taking an estimated 6 per cent share of the global equities market in the second half of 2009, against less than 3 per cent before the crisis.

摩根士丹利(Morgan Stanley)首席银行业分析师休•范斯蒂尼斯(Huw van Steenis)上周发布的研究报告显示,巴克莱资本的扩张行动已见成效。2009年下半年,该公司在全球股市中所占份额估计为6%,而危机前不足3%。

However, the group will also have to overcome regulatory challenges. The higher capital ratios and increased liquidity demanded by regulators could be partly solved by a large US retail acquisition.

不过,巴克莱集团也必须克服监管方面的挑战。监管部门要求的提高资本充足率、以及增加流动性,通过收购一家大型美国零售银行,可以得到部分解决。

Like most European banks, BarCap would be relatively unharmed by a ban on proprietary trading or investment in internal hedge funds, as has been proposed in the US, because it has relatively small positions in these areas.

美国提议禁止自营交易或投资内部对冲基金。与大多数欧洲银行一样,这样的禁令对巴克莱资本不会有多大损害,因为它在这些领域的业务规模相对较小。

Looming much larger though is the political noise, particularly in the UK, about the perceived lack of social utility in BarCap’s core activities and any sustained momentum towards “narrow” banking.

关于巴克莱资本的核心业务明显缺乏社会效益,且没有任何朝“狭义”银行业务方向持续发展的势头,政界的异议声音(尤其在英国)日趋响亮。

Much depends on the ability of Barclays and other integrated banks, such as Citigroup and JPMorgan Chase, to persuade regulators of the merits of the “universal banking” model by limiting any co-ordinated crackdown on high-risk activities or forced segregation of their operations.

这在很大程度上取决于巴克莱及花旗和摩根大通(JPMorgan Chase)等其它综合银行的游说能力——通过限制一切协同打击高风险业务、或强迫它们分离业务的行动,让监管部门相信“全能银行”模式的好处。

Barclays is committed to retaining BarCap and would resist any attempt to enforce a break-up.

巴克莱已决心保留巴克莱资本,并将抵制一切迫使其拆分业务的努力。

Among senior bankers, especially on Wall Street, the consensus is that Mr Diamond’s luck will hold.

高级银行家(尤其是华尔街人士)的共识是,戴蒙德的运气将持续下去。

“It’s like what Napoleon said when asked if he preferred courageous generals or brilliant ones,” notes one. “He said give me lucky ones.”

“这就像有人问拿破仑,他是更喜欢勇敢的将军还是有才能的将军时,他的回答一样,”一位银行家指出。“他的回答是,我喜欢幸运的。”

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