中国:不会把外汇储备当原子武器

英国《金融时报》 杰夫•代尔 北京, 彼得•加海姆 伦敦报道

China has delivered a qualified vote of confidence in the dollar and US financial markets, ruling out the “nuclear option” of dumping its huge holdings of US government debt accumulated over the last decade.

中国昨日对美元和美国金融市场投下有保留的信心票,排除了“原子武器”选择,即抛售其在过去10年间积累的巨额美国国债。

But the State Administration of Foreign Exchange, which administers China’s $2450bn in reserves, the largest in the world, also called on Washington and other governments to pursue “responsible” economic policies.

但是,负责管理中国2.45万亿美元外汇储备的国家外汇管理局(SAFE),也呼吁美国以及其它国家政府推行“负责任的”经济政策。中国拥有全球最大的外汇储备。

The statement on Wednesday, one of a series that Safe has issued in recent days in an apparent effort to address criticism about its lack of transparency, also played down the chances of China making major further investments in gold.

周三的这份声明是中国外管局近日发布的一系列声明之一,目的显然是对外界批评其缺乏透明度做出回应。该声明同时也淡化了中国对黄金做出进一步重大投资的可能性。

Safe’s comments coincided with the news that China had made record purchases of Japanese government bonds in the first four months of the year, helping push the yen to an eight-month high against the dollar.

中国外管局发表此番言论之际,有消息称,中国在今年头四个月买入创纪录金额的日本国债,推动日元兑美元汇率升至八个月高位。

Analysts said it was too early to tell whether China’s move into JGBs was the start of a trend, but Greg Gibbs, FX strategist at RBS, said unlike in the US, Tokyo would not welcome foreign central banks routinely accumulating yen assets.

分析师们表示,要判断中国大举买入日本国债之举是否开启了一个新趋势,现在还太早。但苏格兰皇家银行(RBS)外汇策略师格雷格•吉布斯(Greg Gibbs)表示,与美国不同,东京方面不会欢迎外国央行经常性地累积日元资产。

With such inflows not required to help stabilise its currency given the country’s current account surplus, yen appreciation could hurt the country’s exporters.

鉴于日本的经常账户盈余,该国并不需要这样的资金流入来帮助稳定本币,与此同时,日元升值还可能打击日本出口商。

“If this persists it may generate tensions between Japan and China. It would seem a little ridiculous for Japan to allow the yen to be pressed upwards by inflows from China, when Japan is not able to counter with renminbi asset purchases,” said Mr Gibbs.

“如果这种情况继续下去,日中之间可能产生紧张。对日本来说,一方面让来自中国的资金流入推高日元,另一方面日本却无法以买入人民币资产回应,这种局面有点离谱,”吉布斯表示。

About two-thirds of Safe’s funds are believed to be in dollar assets, giving China a huge exposure to the US economy but also raising fears that the holdings could be used to pressure Washington.

中国外管局管理的资产中,据信有大约三分之二是美元资产,这使得中国对美国经济拥有巨大敞口,但也促使外界担忧这些资产可能被用于对华盛顿方面施压。

Given the US government’s huge funding needs, some analysts worry that China’s stated objective of diversifying its reserves could also lead to higher US interest rates if it buys fewer Treasuries.

鉴于美国政府的巨大融资需求,一些分析师担忧,中国公开宣布的实现外汇储备多元化的目标,如果意味着中国减少购买美国国债,就可能导致美国利率走高。

However, Safe said that the “nuclear” option of selling huge volumes of US assets was “completely unnecessary”. Given its security, liquidity and low transaction costs, the US Treasury market was “a very important market for China”. It added: “Any increase or decrease in our holdings of US Treasuries is a normal investment operation.”

不过,中国外管局表示,抛售大量美国资产这种“原子武器”选择是“完全没有必要的”,考虑到美国国债的安全性、流动性和较低的交易成本,美国国债市场对“中国来说也是一个重要的市场”。该机构还补充称:“增持或减持美国国债都是正常的投资操作。”

The statement said that while Safe had worried that the dollar could drop sharply because of heavy US borrowing, the problems in other countries – notably in the euro area – had made this a less pressing problem.

这份声明表示,尽管中国外管局曾担心,由于美国大量举债,美元可能大幅下跌,但其它国家(尤其是在欧元区)的问题已使美元可能下跌这个问题变得不那么紧迫。

However, it added: “China has been calling for the US to genuinely take measures to protect investors’ interests and confidence as a responsible large nation.”

但该机构补充表示:“中国也一直在呼吁,希望美国作为一个负责任的大国,切实采取措施,保护投资者利益,维护投资者信心。”

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