AlertEmailPrintShare By Peter Brimelow, MarketWatch
NEW YORK (MarketWatch) — An investment letter that called the Crash of 2008 said that this would be a bad year — and it now says it will get worse.

A whole generation of investors think that Robert Prechter and his Elliott Wave Theory letters, Elliott Wave Financial Forecasts and Elliott Wave Theorist, are permabears. And they’ve certainly seemed that way for the last decade — although it should be noted that the stock market is now roughly back where it started. ( See April 26, 2002 column.)

But Prechter was very bullish after the 1974 low and, briefly, after being one of the very few services to make money in 2008. Then he announced that “2010 is the year when the bear market in stocks returns in full force.” ( See Jan. 22 column.)

Elliott Wave Financial Forecasts (EWFF) makes recommendations specific enough to be tracked by the Hulbert Financial Digest. (The Elliott Wave Theorist is too, well, theoretical.)

Over the year to date, EWFF is up just 0.4% by Hulbert Financial Digest count through May vs. negative 0.3% for the dividend-reinvested Wilshire 5000 Total Stock Market Index.

Over the past 12 months, its bearishness did cause it to gain just 4.75% compared to 22.89% for the total return Wilshire 5000. But over the past three years, the letter’s bearishness paid off handsomely. It’s up an annualized 5.25% against negative 8.12% annualized for the total return Wilshire 5000.

And even over the past 10 years, so badly damaged have stocks been that the letter was up an annualized 1.05%, outperforming a mere 0.22% annualized gain for the Wilshire 5000.

The EWFF issue published in early May said flatly: “The topping process is over for the countertrend rally that started in the first quarter of 2009. The next leg lower that commenced in April should now deliver a decline that will ultimately be bigger than the 2007-2009 sell-off. … Gold poked to a new high, but in doing so, likely completed a pattern in mid-May that will lead to a multi-month selloff. … The U.S. dollar index (DXY 86.04, +0.30, +0.35%) is fulfilling EWFF’s forecast for a strong advance.”

All of which fits right into Prechter’s repeated predictions of a massive coming deflation.

In a rare comment on individual stocks, EWFF says: “Google Inc. (GOOG 475.10, -6.95, -1.44%) made its countertrend rally on Jan. 4, four months before the DJIA and Nasdaq, and appears to be locked in a decline the EWFF also forecast last August. Its early reversal is a bearish development for the broad market, as Google is an icon of the last great stock craze. The failure of its stock price to reignite is a clear sign that the animal spirits of the old bull market are all but gone.”

How bad? The clearest statement comes from the Elliott Wave Theorist, discussing a numerological technical theory with which it supplements the Wave Theory’s complex patterns: “The only way for the developing configuration to satisfy a perfect set of Fibonacci time relationships is for the stock market to fall over the next six years and bottom in 2016.”

“Stock market bulls and most economists think that a new bull market and economic recovery are underway. Most bears are looking for either a long sideways bear market à la 1966-1982, or a hyperinflationary run to infinity. Our Elliott Wave outlook opposes both of these scenarios. The most likely profile is a stock market crash of historic proportions.”

Elliott Wave Theorist offers several reasons, including: “This bear market is of Supercycle degree, the biggest since 1720-1784. It should therefore include a decline deeper that the 89% decline of 1929-1932. A decline of 91.5% or more would carry it below 1,000.”

There will be a short-term rally at some point, thinks Prechter, but it will be a trap: “The 7.25-year and 20-year cycles are both scheduled to top in 2012, suggesting that 2012 will mark the last vestiges of self-destructive hope. Then the final years of decline will usher in capitulation and finally despair.”

道指2016年会跌至千点之下?

一份题为“2008年大崩盘”的投资通讯曾预言说,今年将是糟糕的一年──而现在该通讯称,未来还将变得更加糟糕。

整整一代的投资者都认为罗伯特•普莱克特(Robert Prechter)和他的艾略特波浪理论(Elliott Wave Theory)投资通讯──《艾略特波浪金融预测》(Elliott Wave Financial Forecast,简称:EWFF)和《艾略特波浪理论家》(Elliott Wave Theorist)是“万年熊派”的代言人。而且过去十年来它们看上去的确如此──尽管我们应该注意到现在的股市已经基本回到了原点。

在1974年股灾之后以及在2008年成为极少数盈利的投资机构之后的一段短暂时间里,普莱克特曾经非常看好市场。随后,他公开宣称,“在2010年,股市将全面转入熊市。”

EWFF提出的具体建议易于被《赫伯特金融咨询解读》(Hulbert Financial Digest)跟踪。(而《艾略特波浪理论家》则过于理论化。)

据《赫伯特金融咨询解读》截至5月的统计,今年迄今EWFF仅获得了0.4%的收益,而计入股息的威尔夏5000指数(Wilshire 5000 Total Stock Market Index)则损失了0.3%。

过去12个月以来,与威尔夏5000指数22.89%的收益率相比,EWFF受其看跌立场影响,回报率仅为4.75%。但是,纵观过去三年,该投资推荐函的熊派观点却让投资者受益匪浅。其年化收益率达到5.25%,而威夏尔5000指数按年折算却出现了8.12%的损失。

即便是在过去十年股市遭受如此重挫的情况下,EWFF的年化收益率也达到了1.05%,好于威夏尔5000指数仅仅0.22%的年化收益水平。

5月初出版的一期EWFF直截了当地指出,“始于2009年第一季度的逆势反弹已经见顶。从今年4月开始的第二轮下跌走势现在将引发一轮比2007至2009年大抛盘更糟糕的走势。……黄金价格再创新高,但是这样下去,在5月中旬很可能形成一个将引发未来数月抛售行情的周期。……美元指数正在以非常强劲的势头应验着EWFF的预测。”

所有这些都在证明着普莱克特反复多次的预测:那就是大规模通货紧缩的时代即将到来。

在对个股少见的评论中,EWFF称,“谷歌(Google Inc.)在今年的1月4日达到了逆势上涨的顶点,这比道琼斯指数(DJIA)和纳斯达克(Nasdaq)提早了四个月。该公司似乎已被锁定在了EWFF早在去年8月就预测过的下滑通道里。由于谷歌在上一次股市疯涨时是投资者追捧的对象,它的提前反转对于整体市场而言是一个下跌信号。谷歌股价未能再次回升传达出一个清晰的信号,那就是牛市的‘动物精神’几乎一去不复返了。”

情况到底有多糟?《艾略特波浪理论家》在讨论数字学技术理论时补充说明了波浪理论的复杂模式,从而给出了最明确的答案,“要想得到一组满足斐波那契时间周期(Fibonacci time)关系的完美形态,唯一的办法就是股市在未来六年内下跌,并在2016年跌至谷底。”

“股市牛派和大多数经济学家都认为新的牛市和经济复苏的时代正在到来。而大多数熊派则相信会出现一个类似于1966至1982年长期熊市整理的走势,或者无止境的超级通货膨胀。我们的艾略特波浪理论并不认同这两种情形。我们认为最可能出现的情况是股市发生空前的大崩盘。”

《艾略特波浪理论家》列举了几个原因,包括“这次熊市将达到超周期的程度,其跌幅也是自1720至1784年以来最大的,因此它应该会造成比1929至1932年的89%更大的跌幅,而超过91.5%的跌幅就会让道指跌破1,000点。”

普莱克特认为,在某个点上可能股市会出现短期的反弹,但它会是个陷阱,“7.25年周期和20年周期都预示着股市将在2012年见顶,这意味着2012年将代表最后一丝无望的希望。然后在股市大跌的最后几年里,我们将彻底投降,直至最终绝望。”

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