全球投资者“避险”美国

英国《金融时报》 安吉利·拉瓦尔 报道

Global investors have sought refuge in US markets as aversion to the eurozone continues and confidence in China wanes, according to the latest Bank of America Merrill Lynch fund manager survey.

美国银行美林(Bank of America Merrill Lynch)进行的最新基金经理调查显示,全球投资者涌向美国市场寻求避险,他们对于欧元区的反感挥之不去,对中国的信心也在减弱。

The survey, conducted between May 7 and May 13, the week of the international €750bn ($925bn) eurozone rescue package, showed investors had bought into US equities this month and sought out the dollar as a haven currency.

本次调查是5月7日至5月13日之间进行的,正值欧元区的7500亿欧元(合9250亿美元)一揽子国际纾困计划出台之际。调查显示,投资者本月纷纷买进美国股票,并把美元当作避险品种。

Michael Hartnett, chief global equities strategist at Bank of America, said: “May’s survey highlights a flight to the US, driven by the uncertainty in Europe and is underscored by a positive US growth outlook.”

美银全球股票首席策略师迈克尔•哈特尼特(Michael Hartnett)表示:“5月份的调查突显出,受欧洲不确定性及美国增长前景向好的驱动,投资者纷纷逃向美国市场。”

The survey’s risk and liquidity index, based on investor risk appetite, investment outlook and cash levels, experienced its largest one-month fall since 2003. Average cash balances rose to 4.3 per cent of portfolios, up from 3.5 per cent in April.

本次调查中的“风险/流动性指数”创下自2003年以来最大单月跌幅。该指数是以投资者风险偏好、投资前景和现金水平等为基础编制而成的。平均现金余额占投资组合的比例,从4月份的3.5%升至4.3%。

The proportion of asset allocators overweight global equities fell from 52 per cent last month to 30 per cent.

全球股票配置偏重的资产配置者比例,从上月的52%降至30%。

The number of investors who believed the global economy would strengthen in the next 12 months fell from a net 61 per cent to a net 42 per cent, reflecting ongoing concerns about the potential impact of the eurozone debt crisis on global growth.

认为未来一年全球经济会走强的投资者比例,从61%降至42%,反映出投资者仍在担心欧元区债务危机对全球增长的潜在影响。

Investors viewed US equities much more positively than European ones.

投资者对美国股市的看法,远比对欧洲股市乐观。

Gary Baker, head of European equities strategy at BofA, said: “Investors have capitulated on Europe, beaten down by sovereign debt concerns and faltering growth expectations.”

美银欧洲股票策略主管加里•贝克(Gary Baker)表示:“投资者对欧洲已不抱希望,他们对主权债务问题忧心忡忡,对增长前景的预期也犹豫不定。”

Positive sentiment towards emerging market equities dropped to its lowest level since early 2009.

投资者目前对新兴市场股票的乐观人气,降至2009年年初以来的最低水平。

Those fund managers with high exposure to global emerging market equities fell from 31 per cent in April to 19 per cent.

大举投资全球新兴市场股票的基金经理比例,从4月份的31%降至19%。

Global fund managers were more bearish on China than in any month since February 2009, with 29 per cent of investors expecting the Chinese economy to weaken in the next 12 months compared with only 5 per cent predicting a stronger economy.

本月全球基金经理对中国的看法,是2009年2月以来最为悲观的。29%的投资者预期未来一年中国经济将转弱,只有5%投资者预期中国经济将走强。

The Shanghai Composite equity index has dropped 9.6 per cent to 2,594.8 since the beginning of May, leaving the Chinese market down more than 20 per cent since last November.

自5月初以来,上证指数累计下跌9.6%,跌至2594.8点。而自去年11月起,上证指数跌幅超过了20%。

Patrick Schowitz, equity strategist at BofA said: “Investors are worried about the Chinese economy in the context of monetary tightening and about the potential knock-on effects on to other emerging- market countries”.

美银股票策略师帕特里克•舒维茨(Patrick Schowitz)表示:“投资者担心中国经济在货币紧缩环境下的走势,及中国对其它新兴市场国家的连锁影响。”

Those investors who felt that emerging markets had the most favourable outlook for corporate profits stood at 23 per cent.

认为新兴市场企业盈利前景为全球最佳的投资者占23%。

A total of 202 fund managers, managing $530bn of funds, participated in the survey.

本次调查共有202名基金经理参加,他们总共管理着5300亿美元的资金。

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