GAM STAR的“中国投资经”

作者:英国《金融时报》撰稿人 约翰·拉宾

GAM Star China Equity fund manager Michael Lai says the launch of Fidelity’s China Special Situations trust, managed by Anthony Bolton, will help make the case for China as an asset class in its own right.

GAM Star中华股票基金(GAM Star China Equity)经理人Michael Lai表示,安东尼•波顿(Anthony Bolton)管理的富达中国特殊情况信托基金(Fidelity China Special Situations)的发行,将有助于证明中国本是就是一个资产类别。

“From our perspective, that’s good,” says Mr Lai. “You can make the parallel with Japan in the 1960s or 1970s, when it became the [world’s] second-largest stock market.” If current growth trends continue, China will follow the same path, making the case to be treated as a separate asset class.

Michael Lai表示:“从我们的角度看,这很好。你可以将它与上世纪六七十年代成为(全球)第二大股票市场的日本相提并论。”如果当前的增长趋势能持续下去,中国将走上同样的道路,从而有理由把它作为一个单独的资产类别加以对待。

The $208m (£138m, €164m) China Equity fund returned 8.2 per cent in the three months to March 31 compared with a loss of 1.6 per cent for the MSCI Free China index.

在截至3月31日的3个月里,规模为2.08亿美元的GAM Star中华股票基金实现了8.2%的回报率,而摩根士丹利资本国际中国外资自由投资指数(MSCI China Free Index)却下跌了1.6%。

Since launch in July 2007, it has returned annualised growth of 26.6 per cent compared with 0.2 per cent for the index.

自2007年7月推出以来,GAM Star中华股票基金折合成年率的涨幅达到26.6%,而同期摩根士丹利资本国际中国外资自由投资指数仅上涨了0.2%。

Mr Lai says the fund has been oriented to the IT, technology and consumer sectors and away from the real estate and financial sectors, which have suffered from government policies to curb inflation.

Michael Lai表示,该基金的投资重点是IT、科技和消费行业,远离遭受政府控制通胀政策打压的房地产和金融业。

“Real estate and financials have been significant underperformers because of policy headwinds as the government looks to rein in the economy,” he says. “Clearly, the economy had grown a little too fast for comfort. Nonetheless, we remain confident the government will continue to enact policies to create opportunities and allow the economy to grow at around the 7-9 per cent range.”

Michael Lai称:“由于中国政府寻求控制经济增长带来的政策阻力,房地产和金融业的表现一直远弱于其它行业。显然,中国经济增长有点过快,让人不安。不过,我们仍然相信,中国政府会继续出台相关政策,以创造机遇,并将经济增长区间维持在7%至9%左右。”

However, Mr Lai says the market has already priced in a lot of negative news around financials and real estate, so he is beginning to add to some positions. “We are taking our time because it is not apparent to us the economy has slowed down sufficiently to allow the government to relax its stance in terms of removing liquidity.”

然而,Michael Lai表示,市场已经消化了金融和房地产领域的负面消息,因此他已开始增加头寸。“我们并不着急,因为我们还未看到中国经济明显放缓,足以让政府放松消除流动性的立场”。

On the currency front, Mr Lai says the renminbi is undervalued by anywhere between 10 per cent and 40 per cent, but any move to revalue would be a political decision rather than an economic one. A revaluation could be prompted by an acceleration in inflation above 5 per cent or an acceleration in exports.

在汇率方面,Michael Lai表示,人民币汇率低估了10%至40%,但任何升值举措与其说是经济决策,不如说是政治决定。通胀水平加速增至5%以上或出口加速,可能会推动人民币升值。

He says policymakers in China effectively imported monetary policy from the US because of the currency fix, but have used other means of slowing the economy, such as restricting the mortgage market.

他表示,由于实施人民币汇率盯住美元的政策,中国政策制定者实际上引进了美国的货币政策,但它利用其它方式来放缓经济增长,比如限制抵押贷款市场。

“The banking regulators can enforce tighter standards on mortgage lending, so although they don’t have access to independent monetary policy, there are ways they can affect policy, and they have been affecting policy along those lines for the last four months.” Mr Lai has avoided companies affected by such tightening. His focus is on market consolidators – companies seeking to gain market share through acquisition and thereby achieve economies of scale or drive down costs.

“银行业监管机构可能收紧抵押贷款放贷标准,因此尽管没有独立的货币政策,它们也有办法影响政策,过去4个月,它们一直在采取这些办法来影响政策。”Michael Lai回避了那些受到此类紧缩政策影响的公司。他的投资重点在于市场并购者——那些寻求通过收购扩大市场份额,从而实现规模经济或降低成本的公司。

Top holdings include food and beverage company Tingyi; Hengan International, a personal healthcare company; Lenovo, previously IBM in China; and Comba Telecoms International. All companies in the fund are listed in Hong Kong.

重仓股包括食品饮料公司康师傅(Tingyi);个人保健品公司恒安国际(Hengan International);原IBM中国公司联想(Lenovo);以及京信通信(Comba Telecoms International)。GAM Star中华股票基金投资的所有公司都在香港上市。

Despite “obvious political problems”, the basic story for China remains strong, Mr Lai claims. He says the foreign perspective is often based on the situation in first-tier cities such as Hong Kong, Beijing and Shanghai, but many companies are benefiting from doing business in third, fourth and fifth-tier cities.

Michael Lai称,尽管存在“明显的政治问题”,但中国的基本面依然强劲。他表示,外国公司的视角通常基于香港、北京和上海等一线城市的状况,但许多公司正受益于三、四线以及五线城市的业务。

“You can’t extrapolate from Shanghai or Beijing. If you go beyond those two cities, it will give you a more balanced view of what is going on in the rest of the economy.”

“你不能根据上海或北京的情况进行推断。如果你去这两个城市以外的地方看一看,就会对中国其它经济领域的情况有更均衡的了解。”

John Lappin is a freelance journalist writing for Investment Adviser

本文作者是FT Investment Adviser自由撰稿人

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