希腊之忧蔓延至亚洲

英国《金融时报》 凯文•布朗 新加坡, 杰夫•代尔 北京报道

The European Union made a rare appearance on Asia’s front pages this week, grabbing the headlines with its €750bn bail-out fund for Greece and other debt burdened eurozone countries.

在拿出7500亿欧元为希腊和其它负债累累的欧元区国家纾困之后,欧盟(EU)本周罕见地出现在了亚洲报纸的头版。

The sudden surge of interest did not last long – the story was back on the inside pages the following day, competing for space with Asia’s dramatic economic recovery, forecast by theAsian Development Bankto deliver growth of 7.5 per cent this year.

然而这种突然飙升的兴趣没有持续多久。第二天,相关新闻就回到了报纸内页,与亚洲强劲经济复苏的消息争抢版面。亚洲开发银行(Asian Development Bank)预计,该地区经济今年将增长7.5%。

Yet there are real grounds for concern about the impact of the European crisis in the region, especially if uncertainty is prolonged. Most dramatically, it could delay the expected revaluation of China’s currency, the renminbi, against the US dollar.

然而,人们的确有理由担心欧洲危机对亚洲地区的影响,尤其是如果这种不确定性延续下去的话。最重要的是,它可能推迟人们期望中的人民币兑美元汇率的升值。

There had been speculation that Beijing was on the verge of acting, but the crisis has given support to the commerce ministry and other parts of the government that oppose an appreciation because of its possible impact on exports.

此前外界一直猜测,中国政府将很快允许人民币升值。但包括商务部在内的一些中国政府部门因担心对出口造成的不利影响,一直反对人民币升值。而欧洲危机为这一阵营提供了支持。

Qian Wang, an economist at JPMorgan, says the revaluation is likely to happen eventually. But the crisis in Europe “may cause the Chinese policymakers to wait a bit and watch for clearer signs of the fallout on the global economy”.

摩根大通(JPMorgan)经济学家王黔表示,人民币可能最终还是会升值。但欧洲危机“可能会让中国政策制定者再等一等,观察有关此次危机对全球经济影响的更清晰信号”。

There are concerns, too, about the impact on Asian exports to Europe. Sheng Laiyun, spokesman for the National Bureau of Statistics, admitted on Tuesday the Greek crisis would hit exports, although the extent of the impact was unclear.

人们还担忧危机对亚洲向欧洲出口的影响。中国国家统计局(National Bureau of Statistics)新闻发言人盛来运周二承认,希腊危机将影响出口,尽管尚不清楚这种影响的程度。

Suzlon Energy, India’s largest wind-turbine maker, said yesterday that buyers in Europe were postponing orders because of the impact of the debt crisis on fund-raising for renewable energy projects.

印度最大的风力涡轮制造商苏斯兰(Suzlon)昨日表示,由于债务危机对可再生能源项目筹资的影响,欧洲买家推迟了订单。

Asian monetary policy may already have been affected by Europe’s strains. The Bank of Korea yesterday held its base rate at 2 per cent, even though Kim Choong-soo, the governor, said the country’s output gap had “almost closed” and forecast upward price pressures in the second half of the year.

欧洲的紧张局势,可能已经对亚洲货币政策造成影响。韩国央行(Bank of Korea)昨日将基准利率维持在2%的水平,尽管行长金仲秀(Kim Choong-soo)表示,韩国已经“几乎填补”了“产出缺口”,预计今年下半年将出现价格上行压力。

This suggested that rates might have gone up but for the governor’s observation that “downside risks are emerging” from Europe. Malaysia’s central bank, which meets today, may provide a further indication of how central bankers are viewing events.

上述言论表明,若不是金仲秀观察到欧洲“正出现下行风险”,韩国很可能会加息。马来西亚央行将于今日召开会议,或许会对各国央行如何看待这些事件提供进一步的指引。

The crisis may also be having an impact on government fund-raising. Indonesia this week trimmed a planned bond issue from $750m (€590m, £505m) to $500m, suggesting that market volatility was the cause. Investors are carefully monitoring other planned sovereign issues, including a M$3bn ($933m, €734m, £627m) offer from Malaysia expected next month.

此次危机还可能对政府融资产生影响。印度尼西亚本周将计划发行的国债规模从7.5亿美元削减至5亿美元,并暗示市场动荡是原因所在。投资者正谨慎地关注其它国家计划中的主权债务发行,包括马来西亚预计下月发行的30亿元林吉特(合9.33亿美元)国债。

Officials are apt to dismiss suggestions that these straws in the wind could be harbingers of wider problems, arguing that the region will be protected by its enormous foreign currency reserves and substantial current account surpluses, combined with its generally low direct exposure to southern Europe.

对于这些动向可能预示着更大问题的说法,官员们不予认同。他们表示,亚洲地区庞大的外汇储备、巨额经常账户盈余,加之该地区对南欧的直接风险敞口普遍很小,将能够为亚洲提供保护。

Amando Tetangco, governor of the Philippine central bank, told the Financial Times that Asian nations had learnt the lessons of the 1997-98 Asian financial crisis, setting up mechanisms such as the Chiang Mai Initiative Multilateralisation agreement, a $120bn network of bilateral currency swaps deals.

菲律宾央行行长阿曼多•特唐科(Amando Tetangco)向英国《金融时报》表示,亚洲各国已吸取了1997-98年亚洲金融危机的教训,建立了相关机制,比如“清迈倡议多边化协议”(Chiang Mai Initiative Multilateralisation,CMIM),这是一个规模高达1200亿美元的双边货币互换协议框架。

However, the potential for contagion can be seen clearly in the iTraxx SovX Asia-Pacific index, which measures movements in the price of insurance against defaults on Asian sovereign bonds, moved from 110 basis points on May 4 to 180bp on May 7 as concerns spread about Greece’s problems. It has since fallen back to about 130bp.

然而,从衡量亚洲主权债务违约保险价格走势的Markit iTraxx SovX亚太指数(iTraxx SovX Asia-Pacific index),人们可以清楚地看出欧洲危机有可能蔓延。由于对希腊问题的担忧扩散,该指数从5月4日的110个基点,升至5月7日的180个基点。从那之后,该指数重新降至130个基点左右。

Yang-Myng Hong, credit analyst at Nomura in Hong Kong, says one risk factor is the potential withdrawal of $1,800bn of interbank claims held by European banks. Mr Hong says he thinks Asian banks have enough liquidity to offset such fund flows, pointing out that the system withstood the withdrawal of close to $600bn by European banks in the two quarters to March 2009.

日本野村证券(Nomura)驻香港信贷分析师Yang-Myng Hong表示,一个风险因素是,欧洲各银行可能提走其在该地区银行间持有的1.8万亿美元权益。但他认为,亚洲银行有足够的流动性抵消此类资金流动的影响。他指出,在截至2009年3月的两个季度,亚洲的银行体系经受住了欧洲银行近6000亿美元提款的影响。

The bottom line for Asia, though, is that rapid growth is not a complete defence against contagion of the financial system. As Wayne Swan, Australia’s treasurer, put it this week: “Greece is a really stunning reminder there are still risks in the global economy”.

不过,亚洲的关键问题是,经济迅速增长不能完全抵御金融体系危机的蔓延。正如澳大利亚财长韦恩•斯旺(Wayne Swan)本周所说:“希腊敲了一记警钟,即全球经济仍存在风险。”

Additional reporting by Roel Landingin and Peter Smith

罗尔•兰丁金(Roel Landingin)和彼得•史密斯(Peter Smith)也对本文有所贡献

译者/君悦

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