Potash Prices May Decline in 2010, Renaissance Capital Says

By Maria Kolesnikova
Dec. 29 (Bloomberg) — Potash prices may fall next year,
approaching production costs of European and North American
producers, if a Chinese supply contract signed by OAO Uralkali
fails to unlock global demand, Renaissance Capital said.
The contract signed last week by Belarusian Potash Co.,
Uralkali’s marketer, “creates positive momentum” for the
global market that may boost global consumption and start
driving prices up from 2011, Moscow-based analyst Marina
Alexeenkova said in a note today.
“If not, we might see further pressure on the potash price
in 2010 to $300-350 a metric ton, including freight, which
represents the total operating and financial expenses of the
largest potash producers in the European Union and North
America,” she wrote.
Belarusian Potash last week agreed to supply as much as 1.2
million tons of the fertilizer to China at $350 a ton, including
shipping.

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