Warren Buffett speaks in New York. Photographer: Peter Foley/Bloomberg

Meyer Shields says earnings at Warren Buffett’s Berkshire Hathaway Inc. will increase the most since 2006 this year. He’s also telling investors to sell the shares because the economic recovery is weakening.

The Stifel Nicolaus & Co. analyst has plenty of company. For the first time since at least 1997, fewer than 29 percent of ratings for stocks covered by brokerages worldwide are “buys,” according to 159,919 recommendations compiled by Bloomberg. Analysts are turning more pessimistic even as they push up estimates for profit growth among Standard & Poor’s 500 Index companies to 36 percent, the highest since 1988.

“People are sitting on a fence,” said Paul Zemsky, the New York-based head of asset allocation for ING Investment Management, which oversees $550 billion. “When I go and talk to our equity analysts, they look at the companies and say, ‘Boy these companies look pretty good, earnings are OK, they have plenty of cash. What if there’s a double dip?’”

Conflicting announcements two minutes apart by Intel Corp. and Federal Reserve Chairman Ben S. Bernanke last week underscore the challenges facing analysts and investors even as stocks trade at a lower price relative to estimated earnings than almost any time on record. Intel cut its third-quarter revenue forecast, citing weaker-than-expected consumer demand. Bernanke said the central bank “will do all that it can” to safeguard the recovery.

Stand Still

More than 54 percent of ratings for companies in the U.S., U.K., Japan and Brazil are “holds,” the highest level since Bloomberg began tracking the data in 1997. While the proportion of “sell” ratings in the U.S. has fallen to 5.1 percent, half the level of 2003, the total combined with “holds” reached a record 71 percent last month, the data show.

“A ‘neutral’ usually means historically a ‘sell,’” said Kevin Rendino, a money manager at New York-based BlackRock Inc., which oversees about $3.2 trillion. “Ratings chase stock prices. When everyone becomes risk averse, they don’t want to stick their necks out.”

While pessimism is increasing, analysts say profits for companies in the MSCI World Index of 24 developed nations will gain 28 percent in the next year. The MSCI index trades at 11.5 times forecast earnings, data compiled by Bloomberg show. Except for the six months starting October 2008, the index has never traded below 12.5 times reported earnings.

Topping Estimates

Trading on Aug. 27 illustrated the mixed messages facing investors this year.

Stock-index futures jumped at 8:30 a.m. when the Commerce Department revised its second-quarter economic growth estimate to a 1.6 percent annual pace, below the initial assessment of 2.4 percent reported last month, yet beating the 1.4 percent median forecast from a Bloomberg survey of 81 economists. The market opened higher, with the S&P 500 advancing 0.2 percent.

The gains were erased just before 10 a.m. when Intel said consumers were curtailing computer purchases. Two minutes later, Bernanke sparked a 1.7 percent rally in the S&P 500 by predicting an improving economy in 2011.

“This market has been whipsawing us back and forth,” said Mike Ryan, the New York-based head of wealth management research for the Americas at UBS Financial Services Inc., which oversees about $641 billion. “People are interpreting each and every data point either for validation or for repudiation of the view they hold.”

Economic Surprise

Gains on Aug. 27 trimmed the S&P 500’s weekly decline to 0.7 percent, closing at 1,064.59. The gauge fell 1.5 percent to 1,048.92 at 4 p.m. in New York.

The benchmark gauge for U.S. equities is down 4.5 percent in 2010 after Europe’s debt crisis wiped out an increase of as much as 9.2 percent. Citigroup’s Economic Surprise Index showing how much U.S. economic data is differing from forecasts fell to minus 64 on Aug. 25, the lowest since January 2009.

Analysts from Stifel’s Shields to Oppenheimer & Co.’s Rick Schafer and Anthony Gallo at Wells Fargo Securities LLC are advising clients against buying shares of Berkshire, Intel and C.H. Robinson Worldwide Inc. even after boosting profit forecasts.

Shields says his biggest concern is that joblessness will weaken consumer spending, which accounts for 70 percent of the American economy. The unemployment rate held at 9.5 percent for a second month in July and has fallen less than a percentage point from the 26-year high of 10.1 percent last year, according to the Labor Department in Washington.

‘Much Worse’

“It’s negativity on the economy and therefore the ‘sell’ rating on Berkshire,” Shields said in an interview from Baltimore. “Employment is much worse than what people have anticipated. That uncertainty is contributing to weaker-than- desired employment and if I had to pick one single factor that underlies our negativity, that’s what it is.”

Shields forecast on Aug. 9 that Omaha, Nebraska-based Berkshire will earn $6,381 a share for all of 2010, an increase from his previous estimate of $5,866. The company’s Class A shares, which carry greater voting rights, have rallied 19 percent to $118,100 this year. The Class B stock of the firm, whose holdings in railroads, insurers and newspapers make it a proxy for the U.S. economy, rose 20 percent to $78.78 in 2010.

E. William Stone, chief investment strategist at PNC Wealth Management in Philadelphia, says rising “hold” and “sell” recommendations are bullish because it means investors can find bargains and wait for analysts to change their minds. He favors shares of technology makers and industrial companies.

‘A Little Nervous’

“Everybody is a little nervous to go out on the edge,” said Stone, whose firm oversees $103 billion. “That’s a positive. It gives the opportunity to either buy stuff that should be somewhere else. Maybe it’s a good company that’s being dragged down by the overall market.”

Profits for companies in the S&P 500 are forecast to reach $83.34 a share in 2010 and climb 22 percent in the next 12 months to a record $92.15 a share. Even slowing economic growth wouldn’t mean a stock-market crash, according to Laszlo Birinyi of Birinyi Associates Inc., which cut its year-end estimate for the S&P 500 to 1,225 from 1,325 on Aug. 25.

“While joblessness continues and the economy sputters, we would not necessarily ignore, but would instead downplay the vocal economists who believe another recession is upcoming,” the firm wrote. “There is a significant difference between the stock market and the economy. While both might be housed in the same building, they live on different floors.”

Bad Debt

Higher earnings don’t always make shares attractive to investors. At American Express Co., improving profits reflect the reversal of previous bad-debt reserves rather than a revival in consumer spending, said Jason Arnold, an analyst at RBC Capital Markets. He raised his 2010 earnings estimate for the New York-based company to $2.89 a share from $2.54 a share on Aug. 1.

“The estimate increase doesn’t reflect our outlook for a dramatic improvement in fundamentals,” Arnold said in an interview from San Francisco. Earnings are growing “not because they are seeing a tremendous pick-up in core performance, but because they are releasing credit reserves and are cutting expenses. It’s been more of a sugar high,” he said.

The likelihood that Intel’s profit margins will narrow should keep investors from buying the stock, according to Schafer at Oppenheimer. The Denver-based analyst boosted his 2010 profit projection by 12 percent and raised his 2011 forecast by 13 percent on July 14, while telling clients to hold the shares.

‘Peak Earnings’

“I’m no macroeconomist, but you’re certainly seeing data that suggests that things are slowing down,” Schafer said in an interview Aug. 26, the day before Intel lowered its sales forecast. “We’re underweight semis as a sector. We have seen peak earnings and most likely peak gross margins for this particular cycle.”

Schafer cut his 2010 and 2011 earnings estimates by 12 percent and 30 percent following Intel’s Aug. 27 announcement. The outlook from the Santa Clara, California-based company, whose chips run more than 80 percent of the world’s PCs, adds to evidence that the U.S. economic recovery is losing steam.

Wells Fargo analyst Anthony Gallo raised his 2010 profit forecast for C.H. Robinson last month and kept the “market perform” rating he has had since February. The Baltimore-based analyst said the transportation services company had earnings growth even as margins contract. He sees the shares as “fairly valued” given the economic uncertainties.

‘Hard to Envision’

“A catalyst on the horizon? It’s hard to envision one right now,” Gallo said in an interview. “We’ve seen a moderation in the rate of growth. We expect that to continue into the end of the year.” While expense cuts could help the Eden Prairie, Minnesota-based company, “it’s hard to see how that would be enough to continue to push estimates higher.”

The possibility revenue will disappoint investors is reason to sell shares of Dallas-based Texas Instruments Inc., said Daniel A. Berenbaum, who covers the stock for Auriga USA LLC, a New York-based research and trading company owned by Spanish investment firm Auriga Securities S.V. Sales at the second- largest U.S. chipmaker will surge 34 percent this year, rise 3 percent in 2011 and slump 1 percent in 2012, based on analysts’ estimates tracked by Bloomberg.

“The higher it goes now, the lower it could potentially go in the future,” said Berenbaum, who boosted his sales and earnings estimates for the technology maker last month. “I’m not inclined to raise my ‘sell’ rating.”

Lockstep

Wall Street firms are becoming more reluctant to award “buy” ratings because U.S. stocks are moving in lockstep with the S&P 500, limiting the opportunity for analysts to identify relative value, said John Praveen, chief investment strategist at Prudential International Investments Advisers LLC.

The correlation between the U.S. equity benchmark and its individual members was 0.81 in the 50 trading days through July 7 and has since remained close to that level, Birinyi data show. That’s almost twice the historical average of 0.45 from the past 30 years. A higher number means moves in individual stocks are increasingly related to the direction of the index as a whole and not on their own earnings prospects or valuation, the Westport, Connecticut-based research firm said.

“There’s a high amount of uncertainty,” said Newark, New Jersey-based Praveen, whose firm oversees $690 billion. “Analysts are trying not to stick out their necks. They are probably not really sure about how the economy is going to play out over the next couple of months. They are using that as an excuse to play it safe.”

The 50-year-old newsletter writer is in big demand these days because of a technical market indicator he devised to predict stock-market crashes. Dubbed the ‘Hindenburg Omen’ after the 1937 disaster of a German passenger airship, the indicator has been the buzz of talk shows, blogs and news articles after developing a following on trading floors from New York to London.

The Dow Jones Industrial Average has dropped 2.5% since the indicator was triggered the first of three times on Aug. 12. The market action has turned Miekka, a blind former high-school physics teacher, into a reluctant celebrity.

‘I guess it feels good to be famous,’ Miekka says from his home in Surry, Maine. ‘But at the same time, I wonder how the indicator is going to work in the future with all this attention.’

(This story and related background material will be available on The Wall Street Journal Web site, WSJ.com.)

Miekka devised the indicator using a formula that parses data including 52-week stock levels and moving averages of the New York Stock Exchange. Other criteria include a rising 10-week NYSE moving average and a negative technical indicator that measures market fluctuations. All these gauges must occur simultaneously on the same day to trigger the Hindenburg Omen.

To some, it sounds like little more than hocus-pocus. Wall Street traders are skeptical, considering that the indicator has been triggered many times since Miekka devised it in 1995 without an ensuing major market selloff. Indeed, significant stock-market declines have followed the indicator just 25% of the time.

The Hindenburg following comes amid growing uncertainty in the markets and widely disparate forecasts. Investors have shown an increasing inclination to turn to charts in search of clues about the market’s direction, especially as stocks continue to lack direction.

‘People are grasping at straws and always looking for someone who might have all the answers,’ says Jeremy Siegel, finance professor at the University of Pennsylvania’s Wharton School of Business.

Barry Ritholtz, chief executive of Fusion IQ, an online quantitative-research firm, says the Hindenburg Omen is a backward-looking indicator that doesn’t consider causation. He labels it ‘recession porn,’ contending that investors are attracted to negative commentary and conspiracy theories during skittish markets.

Miekka brushes off such concerns. He warns that the trio of Hindenburg Omen appearances this month doesn’t bode well, especially since a cluster of occurrences tends to lead to more significant declines. He said it is possible the market could drop 20% from the first sighting two weeks ago.

‘It’s like a funnel cloud,’ Miekka says. ‘You don’t get a storm with every funnel cloud, but now that we’re seeing several funnel clouds, I definitely think I want to stay in the storm cellar.’

Miekka’s foray into stocks began after he was injured while conducting experiments at a Massachusetts mine, where he was trying to find a better way to extract minerals from rock. There was an explosion from chemicals he was working with, and he was blinded by complications during an ensuing eye operation. ‘The last thing I saw was the eye chart going into surgery,’ he said.

As he recuperated, Miekka said he began listening to television shows that focused on investing, and began actively putting his money into the market.

He came up with his first trading ‘system’ in 1989. Now, he is working on a number of other indicators, such as a short-term, five-day buy signal based on the trading patterns of two market averages over the past 25 days.

Miekka, who publishes the ‘Sudbury Bull & Bear Report,’ said his newest indicator has been ‘very effective.’ But he is keeping the indicator’s name and the names of the averages to himself.

Market indicators aren’t his only inventions. He also says he created artificial-vision technology that uses sounds to help him identify targets better than any sighted shooters. He can hit a National Rifle Association target at 100 yards, and this week he hit a bowling pin at 200 yards.

He also helps the Florida-based organization Blind Americans. Miekka raised more than $3,000 for the organization by walking 130 miles from its headquarters in Hernando to St. Petersburg. He used a global positioning system and his guide dog, Zoey, and completed the walk in a week and a half, with just a few bumps along the way.

‘I did make a few wrong turns, but I was always able to straighten it out,’ he says.

Despite the publicity surrounding the Hindenburg Omen, his obscure investment newsletter, which has just 100 subscribers, hasn’t fared quite as well.

He says: ‘I’ve gotten maybe five or seven inquiries and one subscriber.’

Steven Russolillo / Tomi Kilgore

英国《金融时报》 迈克尔•麦肯兹 纽约, 罗宾•哈丁 华盛顿报道
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Fears that the US and other major economies are slowing sharply sent investors piling into the safety of government debt yesterday, pushing UK, German and US bond yields down to record lows.

由于担心美国和其它主要经济体的增长将会大幅放缓，投资者昨日纷纷涌入国债市场寻求避险，将英国、德国和美国的国债收益率推低至创纪录低点。

Global equities and commodities like oil that move on expectations of growth prospects, also fell sharply. Investors sent the Japanese yen to a 15-year high against the dollar as investors exited risky currency trades.

受上述增长前景预期的影响，全球股市以及石油等大宗商品市场也出现大幅下跌。投资者纷纷退出高风险货币交易，推动日元兑美元汇率升至15年高点。

Analysts say the moves reflected expectations that in order to stimulate global growth, central banks have to buy more government bonds and are in no position to tighten monetary policy until 2012 at the earliest.

分析师们表示，市场的上述表现反映出一种预期：为了刺激全球经济增长，各国央行将不得不购买更多的国债；此外，它们最早也要等到2012年时才会收紧货币政策。

“There is a global perception that while we are not necessarily going into a Japan-type scenario, there is a recognition of a slow recovery accompanied by disinflation that means there is little pressure on central banks to raise rates,” said Gerald Lucas at Deutsche Bank.

德意志银行(Deutsche Bank)的杰拉尔德•卢卡斯(Gerald Lucas)表示：“虽然全球投资者感到，我们不一定会陷入日本式的衰退，但他们认定复苏将是缓慢的，并将伴随通胀减速——几乎不会对央行构成任何加息压力。”

The slide in bond yields will focus attention even more than usual on Ben Bernanke, the Federal Reserve chairman, when he gives a policy speech at the central bank’s Jackson Hole conference on Friday.

国债收益率的下滑将让美联储(Fed)主席本•伯南克(Ben Bernanke)在周五发表政策讲话时，受到比以往更多的关注。伯南克周五将在美联储杰克逊霍尔(Jackson Hole)会议发表政策讲话。

Mr Bernanke is set to use his speech to explain the Fed’s move at its last meeting to reinvest cash from maturing mortgage-backed securities and thereby stop its balance sheet from shrinking.

伯南克将利用这次讲话来解释美联储在上次会议上商定的举措，即把抵押贷款支持证券(MBS)到期后回笼的资金再投入市场，避免收缩自身资产负债规模。

That move took markets by surprise and fuelled heavy flows into bonds and out of equities. Some Fed officials are concerned that, by shaking market confidence, it may have been counterproductive.

此举出乎市场意料，并导致大量资金流出股市、流入国债市场。一些美联储官员担心，此举可能适得其反，因为它动摇了市场的信心。

Mr Bernanke will want to convince the markets that the change did not reflect Fed pessimism about the economic outlook. Most Fed officials agreed that the outlook is weaker, so it no longer made sense to tighten policy by shrinking the Fed’s balance sheet.

伯南克将希望说服市场相信，这一政策改变并不意味着美联储对经济前景感到悲观。大多数美联储官员都认为，鉴于经济前景走弱，通过收缩美联储资产负债规模来收紧政策已不再是明智之举。

作者：英国《金融时报》 汤姆•博格斯科纳 克里报道

A substantial cake decorated in the livery of Air Guinea International feted the world’s newest airline last week, writes Tom Burgis.

上周，几内亚国际航空公司(Air Guinea International)用一个装点成公司制服图案的巨大蛋糕，庆祝这家全球最新航空公司的成立。

The ceremony at a hotel in Conakry, Guinea’s capital, marked the latest addition to a remarkable portfolio of investments by China International Fund.

这个庆祝仪式在几内亚首都科纳克里的一家酒店举行，它标志着中国国际基金(China International Fund, CIF)令人瞩目的投资组合又增添了一项新内容。

CIF came to prominence as one of the main Chinese investors in Angola, where China pioneered its model of swapping infrastructure and billions of dollars of cheap finance for African resources.

CIF之所以引起人们的关注，是因为它是安哥拉境内主要中国投资者之一。中国在那里开创了以基础设施和数十亿美元廉价融资换取非洲资源的运营模式。

But CIF is a different beast from the state-owned energy groups and banks that have spearheaded Beijing’s international investment.

但与在中国政府的国际投资中冲锋陷阵的国有能源公司和银行相比，CIF是一家不同的机构。

It is ostensibly private and Chinese officials have been quoted distancing Beijing from CIF, which is one of a number of companies known as the 88 Queensway Group after their Hong Kong address.

它表面上是一家私人机构，而媒体援引的一些中国官员的话中，也在撇清中国政府与CIF之间的关系。从地址来看，CIF只是香港金钟道88号众多公司中的一员。

A report for the US Congress last year said that “key personnel” among CIF’s owners “have ties to Chinese state-owned enterprises”.

去年，一份提交美国国会的报告显示，CIF所有者中的“核心成员”“与一些中国国有企业存在关联。”

CIF’s owners came to US attention in 2008 when Lev Leviev, an Israeli diamond magnate with Angolan interests, sold the former JPMorgan building in Manhattan to China Sonangol, a joint venture between CIF’s owners and Angola’s national oil company.

2008年，CIF的所有者们引起了美国的注意。当时一位在安哥拉拥有业务的以色列钻石大亨列维•雷弗埃夫(Lev Leviev)，将曼哈顿的原摩根大通(JPMorgan)大楼出售给了安中资源(China Sonangol)——这是CIF所有者与安哥拉国有石油公司创办的合资企业。

CIF’s plans for $7bn of investments in mining, infrastructure and oil prospecting in Guinea attracted criticism because they were announced shortly after security forces loyal to the then military dictator massacred 156 opposition protesters.

CIF在几内亚矿业、基础设施和石油勘探领域投资70亿美元的计划遭到了批评，因为就在宣布该计划之前不久，效忠于当时军事独裁者的安全部队刚刚屠杀了156名反对派抗议者。

Allies say the company – which routinely declines to comment – is misrepresented by western rivals, jealous of its expanding presence in African resources.

CIF的支持者认为，西方竞争对手对它的描述有失公允，这是因为它们妒忌CIF在非洲的不断扩张。CIF通常拒绝置评。

China Investment Corp, the country’s $300bn sovereign wealth fund, this week announced its latest “worldwide” recruitment drive with 64 positions advertised.

中国3000亿美元规模的主权财富基金——中国投资公司(China Investment Corp)本周宣布了其最新的“全球”招聘活动，涉及64个岗位。

But laid-off Lehman employees shouldn’t get their hopes up unless they were born in China and – for at least some posts – are members of the Chinese Communist Party.

但对于被解雇的雷曼(Lehman)雇员而言，除非出生在中国，而且（至少部分职位有此要求）是中共党员，否则不应抱有太高的期望。

Given the sensitive nature of CIC’s investments around the world new recruits are expected to be very discreet and very loyal to the Chinese government, which rules out most foreign financial professionals.

鉴于中投公司全球投资的敏感性，中投希望新招聘人员非常谨慎且非常忠于中国政府。该条件将多数外国金融专业人才挡在门外。

The jobs on offer range from secretarial staff and human resources managers – “must be Chinese Communist Party member” – to country analyst in the international co-operation department – “must be good at keeping secrets”.

中投此次提供的岗位范围广泛，从秘书人员与人力资源经理（“必须是中共党员”），到公关外事部的国别研究员（“保密意识强”）。

CIC is also looking for asset allocation researchers, financial analysts, credit risk analysts and hedge fund analysts as well as a deputy director for its Disciplinary Committee and Staff Supervisory Bureau to manage the fund’s “discipline education team”.

除此之外,中投还在招聘资产配置研究员、金融分析师、信用风险分析师、对冲基金分析师，以及纪委监察局高级副经理，以管理它的“纪委教育制度组”。

The successful candidate for that job will be a “fair and upright Chinese Communist Party Member with a precise work style and strong comprehensive awareness”.

成功应聘纪委监察局高级副经理岗位的求职者须具备下述特质：“工作作风严谨，公道正派，大局意识强”。

In its recruitment notice for private equity investment managers, CIC said it was not yet formally accepting applications but is interested in résumés from anyone with investment experience in overseas real estate markets, agricultural sectors, forestry and infrastructure.

中投在其私募投资经理的招聘公告中表示，它尚未正式接受求职申请，但欢迎任何有海外房地产市场、农业、林业、基础设施投资经验的人才投递简历。

That gives a strong hint of the sectors CIC will be looking to invest in when it receives a new injection of cash – expected to be as much as $200bn – from the country’s $2,500bn in foreign exchange reserves.

这对中投在接受新注资之后将寻求投资的领域给出了强烈暗示。预计中国政府将从2.5万亿美元外汇储备中，拨出高达2000亿美元的资金注入中投。

The deadline for job applicants is August 9, which suggests the new money could be coming down the pipeline quite soon.

中投职位申请截止日期是8月9日，似乎表明上述注资可能很快到位。

Play Video
Aug. 27 (Bloomberg) — David Wyss, global chief economist at Standard & Poor’s, talks about the outlook for China’s economy. Wyss also discusses economies in the U.S. and Europe, and North Korean leader Kim Jong Il’s reported visit to China. Wyss speaks in Hong Kong with Rishaad Salamat on Bloomberg Television. (Source: Bloomberg)

Investors withdrew a net $7.1 billion from equity funds tracked worldwide in the week to Aug. 25 and put some $5.2 billion into bonds amid concern economies in the U.S. and Europe are losing momentum, EPFR Global said.

A net $5.4 billion was redeemed from U.S. stock funds, while inflows into emerging markets were the lowest in 13 weeks, EPFR said in an e-mailed statement. Developing-nation bond funds took in $1 billion, on course for a record-setting year, while U.S. bond funds drew $2.5 billion, according to the Cambridge, Massachusetts-based research firm.

The MSCI AC World Index, tracking developed and emerging markets, has dropped 4.2 percent this month after government data signaled a slowdown in the U.S., China and Japan and Standard & Poor’s lowered Ireland’s credit rating. Concern the global rebound will falter is driving investors to the relative safety of bonds, sending yields on two-year treasuries and German 30-year government securities to a record low this week.

“The weaker the numbers come in, particularly in housing, the higher the probability becomes” for a second recession in the U.S., David Wyss, S&P’s chief economist, said in a Bloomberg Television interview in Hong Kong. “While you’ve got stellar German growth, the rest of Europe is looking pretty sick.”

While withdrawals from funds investing in U.S. stocks were the most in dollar terms, redemptions from Japanese stock funds were the highest in terms of percentage of assets under management, according to EPFR. European equity funds also posted net outflows, taking year-to-date losses to $15.7 billion, the research firm said.

EPFR Global tracks funds with some $13 trillion in assets worldwide.

Emerging Markets

Global emerging-market funds took in $333 million for the week, while those investing in Latin America and emerging Europe, Middle East and Africa attracted less than $40 million each, according to the statement. Asia excluding Japan funds posted outflows of $289 million, EPFR also said.

“The biggest headwind for Asian markets was the weaker data emerging from key export markets, with the U.S., China and Japan all posting numbers that suggest their economies are slowing,” EPFR said.

Data released in the week ended Aug. 25 showed U.S. existing home sales slumped, orders for durable goods rose less than forecast and jobless claims jumped. Earlier this month, Japan reported that its gross domestic product grew an annualized 0.4 percent in the three months ended June 30. While that allowed China to overtake Japan as the world’s second- largest economy, Chinese growth is also cooling, with July industrial output rising the least in 11 months, retail sales growth easing and new loans increasing less than estimated.

Treasuries, Bunds

The U.S. economy grew at an annual rate of 1.4 percent in the second quarter, versus the 2.4 percent pace the government estimated last month, according to a Bloomberg survey before the release of Commerce Department figures today.

Inflows into emerging-market bond funds continued for a 13th consecutive week, taking this year’s total beyond 300 percent of the annual record set in 2005, EPFR said in today’s statement. The firm had previously said the 2005 high was $9.7 billion.

Dollar bonds in developing nations have returned 13 percent this year through yesterday, according to JPMorgan Chase & Co.’s EMBI Global Diversified Index that tracks debt of 40 nations. The market has rallied every quarter since 2008, the longest winning streak since March 2004. An index tracking local- currency debt gained 18 percent this year.

Global bond funds were also poised to surpass last year’s record inflow of $47 billion, while inflows into U.S. bond funds stood at 70 percent of the total received last year, also a record high, according to EPFR.

To contact the reporters on this story: Shiyin Chen in Singapore at schen37@bloomberg.net; David Yong in Singapore at dyong@bloomberg.net

The mathematical finance scholar who lectures at New York University and wrote the 2007 book ‘The Black Swan’ said he is as pessimistic as ever about the prospects for sustained global economic recovery. He suggests that investors around the world strap in for a wild ride of deflation and inflation. And, therefore, he said, it makes sense for him to pour money into farming, especially olives, which are indispensable to the Mediterranean world.

‘Healthy investments are those that produce goods that humans need to consume, not flat-screen TVs,’ Prof. Taleb said by phone from near his family’s ancestral home in Amioun. ‘Stocks are not a robust investment. Make sure you have a garden that bears fruits.’

Some of the world’s biggest investors are planting the same seeds. The Santa Monica, Calif., investment firm Mr. Taleb helped start and still advises, Universa Investments LP, is in talks with China’s $300 billion sovereign-wealth fund, China Investment Corp., and Middle East government funds about investing in Universa, according to a person familiar with the matter. Specifically, sovereign-wealth funds are willing to pay the firm in the hopes that if the market dives, at least some part of their portfolio will profit.

Panic is a profit-driver for Mr. Taleb, who has gained renown for his pessimism, a viewpoint that proved prescient in the market collapse of 2008. The interest from the likes of the Chinese and Middle East funds, which control some of the world’s biggest pools of money, suggests more mainstream adoption of Universa’s bearish conviction.

The outcome of the talks isn’t certain, according to a person familiar with the matter. But if the investments materialize, they likely would boost the Universa fund’s client assets from $6 billion to about $10 billion, two people familiar with the matter said.

CIC didn’t respond to a request for comment. Mr. Taleb said he couldn’t discuss Universa client talks. But he has consulted with several sovereign-wealth funds about his ‘black swan’ philosophy in recent years.

Such an approach represents an extreme downside hedge for China, whose export-heavy economy depends on global growth.

The term ‘black swan’ refers to a long-held belief that all swans were white. Explorers then discovered black swans in Australia. The image came to reflect the occurrence of something highly unexpected, including events that could make markets nose dive.

For investors wanting to guard against such events, Universa started the Black Swan Protection Protocol, a vehicle different from a typical hedge fund in that clients don’t hand over their entire account for the firm directly to manage. Instead, clients designate a certain pool of assets, a notional value, that they seek to hedge, or protect against extreme losses.

Universa is run by 39-year-old Mark Spitznagel, a former Chicago Board of Trade pit trader and longtime collaborator with Mr. Taleb. His five traders buy put options on specific stocks and stock indexes.

The goal is for the value of the puts to pay off 60% if the market drops by 20% or more in a month. A put conveys the right to sell a security at a specified price.

This year, Universa clients on average have lost about 2% of their notional account value, one person familiar with the matter said. This year’s volatility hasn’t been extreme enough, or its losses steep and sudden enough, for Universa’s strategy to pay off.

Universa’s clients also lost money last year, when the Standard & Poor’s 500-stock index gained 23%. At year-end, client portfolios were down an average of about 4%, one person close to the matter said.

But 2008 was different. That year, extreme market losses helped many Universa clients profit more than 100%.

“黑天鹅”吸引中投关注

数理金融学者塔勒布（Nassim Nicholas Taleb）上周在黎巴嫩北部的老家，思考着商品和服务定价的不稳定性，与此同时他还在购买着橄榄园。

塔勒布在纽约大学担任教授，并在2007年撰写了《黑天鹅》（The Black Swan）一书，他说他像以往那样对全球经济持续复苏前景表示悲观。他暗示，全球投资者应该为通缩和通胀的剧烈动荡做好准备。因此他认为将资金投入农业更有意义，尤其是橄榄，这在地中海沿岸地区是不可或缺的农产品。

Bloomberg News
塔勒布建议，全球投资者应该为通缩和通胀的剧烈动荡做好准备。
塔勒布在黎巴嫩艾姆云他祖宅附近通过电话说，良好的投资是那些可以生产人类需要消费的产品的投资，而不是平板电视这类东西。股票不是稳健的投资，一定要确保你有一座可以结出果实的园子。

全球一些最大投资者也在播下同样的种子。知情人士说，塔勒布帮助建立并仍担任顾问的投资公司Universa Investments LP正与管理着3,000亿美元的主权财富基金中国投资公司进行洽商，并与中东政府基金洽谈向Universa的投资事宜。这家公司位于加州圣莫尼卡。主权财富基金尤其希望投资该企业，因寄望如果市场下跌，至少部分投资组合将获利。

恐慌是塔勒布获利的动力，塔勒布以持悲观看法而闻名， 2008年市场崩盘证明了他的先见之明。掌控全球最大规模资金资源的中国和中东基金对Universa有兴趣，显示了后者的悲观看法更多地为主流所接受。

中投看上了“黑天鹅”
《黑天鹅》一书的作者塔勒布因对经济持悲观看法而闻名，08年市场崩盘证明了他的预见性，也让他的投资公司获利颇丰。目前中投公司也考虑与他的公司合作。
一位知情人士称，谈判结果还未确定。两位知情人士表示，如果投资成为现实，可能将把Universa基金管理的客户资产从60亿美元提升至约100亿美元。

中投公司没有回复置评要求，塔勒布说，他不能讨论Universa客户的谈话。但近几年他曾与几家主权财富基金谈论过他的“黑天鹅”哲学。
‘
对中国来说，投资Universa之举是对经济下行风险的极端对冲，中国严重依靠出口的经济仰赖于全球经济的增长。

“黑天鹅”一词的含义是，长期以来人们认为所有天鹅都是白色的，但探险家发现澳大利亚有黑天鹅，这一现象反应出非常意外情况的出现，其中包括可能使市场大跌的事件。

针对那些希望防范这些事件的投资者，Universa建立了黑天鹅保护协议（Black Swan Protection Protocol），这与典型的对冲基金不同，客户不把他们全部的帐户交给Universa直接管理，而是客户指定一部分资产，他们希望对冲这些资产的名义价值，或保护它们不受极端损失影响。

Universa由39岁的斯皮兹纳戈尔（Mark Spitznagel）负责运营，他以前是芝加哥期货交易所（Chicago Board of Trade）的场内交易员，也是塔勒布的长期合作者。他的五个交易员对特定股票和股指买入看跌期权。

看跌期权的目的是，如果在一个月内市场下跌20%或更多，持有看跌期权的投资者将获益60%。看跌期权是在特定价格出售证券的权利。

一位知情人士说，今年Universa客户的名义帐户价值平均损失约2%，今年市场波动不够极端，或市场跌势和突发性不够，难以让Universa的投资策略获利。

去年Universa客户也出现亏损，当时标准普尔500指数累计涨23%。一位知情人士说，去年底时客户投资组合平均损失约4%。

但2008年情况就不一样了，那年市场急剧下跌，帮助许多Universa客户获利超过100%。

Jenny Strasburg